DUCKPOND

Unless something unexpected happens that denies rational calculation, the writing will be on the wall for Clinton after the primary voting on 20 May. The results are very predictable. If Washington is a guide, Oregon should go for Obama, and Kentucky, following Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana and West Virginia will give preference to Clinton.

One way to judge the importance of the states with primary races is to consider how many electoral college votes are in play. West Virginia has 5, Kentucky has 8, and Oregon has 7. They are not likely to be critical to the outcome in November. West Virginia and Kentucky voted for Bush in 2004 and Oregon fell over the line for Kerry. These states and their voters are in the spotlight now because they are holding primaries. Based on 2004 experience, there is a good chance that will vote Republican.

Michigan and Florida may will be critical. Both were won by small margins in 2004. Michigan has 17 electoral votes and Florida 27. Just how and why the Democratic primaries were stuffed up in these states I do not really know, but if the rules are changed to suit one candidate over another, I would predict a very fractious and disharmonious Convention, with a negative effect on the candidate and the party. The political reality is that the electoral system will not be changed.

So what is Clinton proving to anybody by staying in the race, at some cost to herself? On the face of it she and her team must believe that they can win. Her husband was only successful in 1992 because Ross Perrot was in the race and gained almost 20% of the vote, that otherwise would have gone to the Bush’s father.

My expectation is that the so-called race issue will be a side show freak event in the main show, and it will not really be decisive. The critical issue will be the economy, with the Iraq war as the secondary top of the mind issue. The fact that Clinton can swill whiskey, threaten Iran with obliteration, and attract the Reagan Democrats, would only make sense if she were the Republican candidate.

So at some point she will have to exit, and hopefully retire from the scene permanently. Her best option must be to do so by her own choice. That might be when she starts talking to some people in Kentucky and find they do not speak English.

UPDATE:

Truthdig reports that John Edwards has endorsed Obama. Clinton is not getting the endorsements she needs. Her campaign is terminal.

DHinMi at Daily Kos compares dominant voting patters for Obama and Clinton concluding:

In the meantime, it would be great if pundits and politicos would recognize and acknowledge that race doesn’t appear to have been much of a hindrance for Obama in the Democratic primaries, except, it appears, in Appalachia and in some regions where descendants of Appalachian migrants settled, such as the Ozarks, Oklahoma, and some isolated rural communities on the Plains. Obama doesn’t appear to have much of a problem with white voters[Euro-Americans]. But it seems quite likely Appalachia has a bit of an Obama problem.

Robert Reich suggests reasons for Clinton to stay on, but sees Clinton fast approaching the point of no return on each of the grounds he suggests: she can win, the superdelegates will switch, and she can make a deal (via Tim Dunlop at Blogocracy).

Let me suggest that the Clinton campaign has considerably helped Obama. She has fired the Republican/McCain ammunition and while she wounded Obama it has not been fatal. These peripheral matters, such as race, will I am expecting be seen now as irrelevant to the major concerns of climate change, the economy and the war. Since elections are after all part of the process of democratic discussion and debate, in which policy debate is a more important process than trivial discussion, the electoral process has been considerably improved by the clearing of the air made possible by Clinton’s campaign.